To
Anyone with a decision to make
From
Daniel Okafor-Reyes
Re
Agenda item 5
Date
2026-11-09

Keeping Score: The Decision Journal

If you do not record what you expected before an outcome, you will remember having expected whatever happened. A simple journal fixes that.

The best decision-makers are not the ones who are always right. They are the ones who find out quickly when they were wrong and adjust. That requires keeping score, and keeping score requires writing things down before the result is known.

Why memory is not enough

Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an event, to see it as having been more predictable than it actually was. Once you know the outcome, your memory of what you expected quietly shifts towards it. Without a record, you cannot tell good judgment from good luck.

What to record

Keep each entry short; a few lines is enough.

  • Date and decision. What did you choose, and what were the alternatives?
  • Expected outcomes and probabilities. The same list you used for the expected-value sketch.
  • Your risk budget. What were you prepared to lose?
  • Key reasons. Two or three, no more.
  • How you felt. Tired, rushed, excited. State of mind affects judgment.
  • Review date. When will you know how it turned out?

The review

On the review date, add the outcome and ask four questions:

  1. Did the result fall within the range I expected?
  2. Were my reasons correct, even if the result was good or bad?
  3. Did I stay within the risk budget?
  4. What would I do differently with the same information?

Separate the quality of the decision from the quality of the outcome. A sound decision can turn out badly through chance; a poor one can turn out well. Over many entries, patterns appear that one outcome can never show.

Calibration

If you record probabilities, you can check whether they are calibrated. Of all the things you said were about 70% likely, roughly 70% should have happened. If far more or fewer did, your confidence needs adjusting. This takes many entries to judge, which is another reason to start now.

Keeping score on leisure spending

The journal works for personal spending too. Anyone who plays games of chance benefits from recording what they spent and won, honestly, over months. The total is usually more informative than the memory of a few big wins.

On gambling. Games of chance are priced so that the operator comes out ahead over time. If you play, fix a loss limit in advance and treat it as the cost of entertainment, not as an investment. If it stops being fun or starts costing more than you planned, in the US you can call 1-800-MY-RESET.

Keep it simple

A notebook, a spreadsheet or a notes app all work. The format matters far less than the habit of writing before the outcome and reviewing after it.

Write the prediction first. Grade the decision separately from the luck.

Filed 2026-11-09