Today's agenda
Approach every decision like the VP who has to sign it.
Short memos on expected value, risk budgets, reading terms and conditions, learning new rules step by step, and keeping score.
Expected Value for Everyday Decisions
Weight each outcome by how likely it is, add them up, and you have the average result of a choice repeated many times. It is the first question a good executive asks.
Item 2Setting a Risk Budget Before You Start
Decide how much you are prepared to lose before the first move, not during. A risk budget turns a feeling into a limit you can keep.
Item 3Reading Terms and Conditions Like a VP
Nobody reads every word. A good reader knows which five clauses decide the deal and finds them first.
Item 4Learning New Rules Step by Step
Whether it is a new market, a new piece of software or a new game, the fastest way to learn is in deliberate layers: goal, sequence, edge cases, then practice.
Item 5Keeping Score: The Decision Journal
If you do not record what you expected before an outcome, you will remember having expected whatever happened. A simple journal fixes that.
Item 6Sunk Costs and Knowing When to Walk Away
Money and time already spent cannot be recovered by spending more. Good decisions look forward from where you stand.